The internet has enabled many unusual, niche forms of content and entertainment to emerge, and one of them is the YouTube poker vlog. In these videos, professional poker players, such as Andrew Neeme and Brad Owen, film poker sessions that they took part in and talk through the hands that they played. In voice-over commentary, they describe what cards are dealt, what the others at the table did, and, most fascinatingly, what they, the vloggers, decided to do at each juncture. Though the commentary is recorded after the fact, it’s often related in the reconstructed present tense. The protagonist will reinstate himself into the moment and talk through the thoughts that were occurring to him then and the process for making the decision that he eventually did.

Poker is well known for being a game of incomplete information and uncertainty, but even so what stands out to me about these vlogs is just how uncertain these players are at so many points. This is especially compelling in moments when the protagonist has a decent hand but the opponent could, based on the cards in play and previous bets, very plausibly have a better hand. The protagonists acknowledge not only that this possibility exists but that it has an appreciably high likelihood associated with it. Many of their best plays come precisely at these times, when they feel only marginally confident that they have a strong position but they nevertheless choose to act on that belief. They are aware that, even assuming that their read of the situation is right, there is a substantial possibility that their opponent has them beat. Their commentary shows a remarkable equanimity in the face of this reality. They say things like, “If my opponent has such and such hand, then he’s taking all our money. But we can’t fold.” A lesser player might, in the same circumstances, have the same feeling of strength but prefer instead to retreat or give up because he is under the sway of the unfavourable possibilities. The master poker player hasn’t eliminated these possibilities but simply accepted them.

There is a tendency to praise people for acknowledging their ignorance, saying ‘I don’t know’, and choosing not to pass judgement. Relatedly, there is a tendency for people not to ‘go out on a limb’ because they fear making a pronouncement that turns out to be wrong or unfounded. This can be an expression of humility, but very often it’s just an instance of cowardice or complacency. There are many cases, including in the professional context, in which people are called upon to make judgements and decisions but they choose to abstain because the situation is unclear. Mastery, however, consists in an exercise of judgement anchored in an awareness of fallibility. It is a sign of maturity to make a reasoned and knowingly fallible decision with incomplete information. This is indeed the essence of your skill. You know and have faith in your resilience to bear the negative consequences flowing from an incorrect decision. Conversely, a refusal to act is often not a sign of wisdom but a marker of deep insecurity and incompetence. As you get better, you get more confident in your decision-making ability, but the confidence rarely reaches a point at which it fully displaces uncertainty. They may have you beat, but you’re not going anywhere.